PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15(8):Įditor: Brian Bird, School of Veterinary Medicine University of California Davis, UNITED STATES (2021) Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale. The approach developed is capable of integrating a wide diversity of risk factors, and provides a flexible and simple tool for surveillance, which can be updated as more data and knowledge on risk factors become available.Ĭitation: Lee-Cruz L, Lenormand M, Cappelle J, Caron A, De Nys H, Peeters M, et al. Data from reported cases of Ebola virus transmission from wild animals to humans were used to validate the maps. The resulting maps highlighted high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover. In this study, we used the spatial multicriteria evaluation framework to gather all available information on risk factors and animal species susceptible to infection, and produce maps of areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover in regions in Guinea, Congo and Gabon. Anthropogenic factors, such as bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption, and environmental and climatic factors, may promote the contact between humans and infected animals, such as bats, primates and duikers, increasing the risk of virus transmission to the human population. It was first described in 1976 and its distribution remained restricted to Central Africa until 2014, when an outbreak in West Africa, causing more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, took place. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.Įbola virus disease is a highly pathogenic disease transmitted from wildlife to humans. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. ![]() Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics.
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